Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Satoru Kitaoka
Willamy Freire
80%
20%
Why
32
Age
Δ 7y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kitaoka: 13 sig / 2 TD ·
Freire: 23 sig / 0 TD
Satoru Kitaoka
Willamy Freire
36
Sig strikes landed
42
92
Sig strikes attempted
98
49
Total strikes landed
59
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
127s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Satoru Kitaoka
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Age
32
Blue corner
Willamy Freire
"Chiquerim"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24