Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kazuhiro Nakamura
Gerald Harris
29%
71%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 8"
78"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Nakamura: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Harris: 30 sig / 4 TD
Kazuhiro Nakamura
Gerald Harris
42
Sig strikes landed
40
93
Sig strikes attempted
97
59
Total strikes landed
68
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.70
Knockdowns
0.10
64s
Control time
226s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kazuhiro Nakamura
"Kaz"
22-13
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
Gerald Harris
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32