Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bibiano Fernandes
Takafumi Otsuka
69%
31%
Why
32
Age
Δ 6y
25
20-4
Career record
Δ 25 pp
22-14-2
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Fernandes: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Otsuka: 3 sig / 0 TD
Bibiano Fernandes
Takafumi Otsuka
41
Sig strikes landed
36
116
Sig strikes attempted
111
72
Total strikes landed
58
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.60
160s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bibiano Fernandes
20-4
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Dynamite!! 2010
—
W
DREAM 13
—
Blue corner
L2
Takafumi Otsuka
22-14-2
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
DREAM - Fight for Japan
—
L
DREAM 14
—