Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yusup Saadulaev
Rodolfo Marques Diniz
76%
24%
Why
26
Age
Δ 1y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Saadulaev: 3 sig / 4 TD ·
Diniz: 14 sig / 0 TD
Yusup Saadulaev
Rodolfo Marques Diniz
52
Sig strikes landed
45
102
Sig strikes attempted
104
80
Total strikes landed
79
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
139s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yusup Saadulaev
"Maestro"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Age
27
Blue corner
Rodolfo Marques Diniz
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Age
28