Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Joachim Hansen
85%
15%
Why
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
37-11-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-14-1
W2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Kawajiri: 19 sig / 3 TD ·
Hansen: 19 sig / 0 TD
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Joachim Hansen
31
Sig strikes landed
20
72
Sig strikes attempted
69
39
Total strikes landed
34
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
88s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
37-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
DREAM - Japan GP Final
—
W
Dynamite!! 2010
—
L
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
W2
Joachim Hansen
"Hellboy"
24-14-1
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
DREAM - Fight for Japan
—
W
DREAM 16
—
L
DREAM 14
—
L
DREAM 13
—