Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shinya Aoki
Rob McCullough
94%
6%
Why
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
W3
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Aoki: 4 sig / 2 TD ·
McCullough: 0 sig / 0 TD
Shinya Aoki
Rob McCullough
33
Sig strikes landed
14
65
Sig strikes attempted
35
46
Total strikes landed
26
2.3
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
146s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Shinya Aoki
"Tobikan Judan"
40-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
DREAM - Fight for Japan
—
W
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
Rob McCullough
"Razor"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34