Back to Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Kharitonov
Light Heavyweight

Roger Gracie vs Muhammed Lawal

Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Kharitonov ·U.S. Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Roger Gracie
Muhammed Lawal
33% 67%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
9-2
Career record
Δ 7 pp
21-7
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gracie: 8 sig / 0 TD · Lawal: 11 sig / 0 TD
Roger Gracie
Muhammed Lawal
26
Sig strikes landed
31
78
Sig strikes attempted
78
50
Total strikes landed
70
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.6
3.9
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
115s
Control time
340s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Roger Gracie

9-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
—
W Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—
Blue corner
L1

Muhammed Lawal

"King Mo"
21-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L Strikeforce - Houston
—
W Strikeforce - Nashville
—