Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Luke Rockhold
60%
40%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
27-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-6
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Souza: 49 sig / 5 TD ·
Rockhold: 97 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Luke Rockhold
32
Sig strikes landed
27
137
Sig strikes attempted
81
49
Total strikes landed
32
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
6.5
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.60
161s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
—
W
Strikeforce - Houston
—
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—
Blue corner
W1
Luke Rockhold
17-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—