Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Leonard Garcia
Nam Phan
52%
48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 4y
29
18-14-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-18
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garcia: 100 sig / 0 TD ·
Phan: 174 sig / 1 TD
Leonard Garcia
Nam Phan
74
Sig strikes landed
69
258
Sig strikes attempted
175
72
Total strikes landed
80
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
51s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Leonard Garcia
"Bad Boy"
18-14-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
L2
Nam Phan
21-18
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—