Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chael Sonnen
Brian Stann
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
34
Age
Δ 4y
31
29-16-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
13-6
L1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Sonnen: 28 sig / 4 TD ·
Stann: 2 sig / 0 TD
Chael Sonnen
Brian Stann
33
Sig strikes landed
28
67
Sig strikes attempted
51
80
Total strikes landed
46
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
275s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
52%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chael Sonnen
29-16-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W3
Brian Stann
"All American"
13-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—