Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Joe Lauzon
62%
38%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
33-18-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
29-16
W5
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Guillard: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Lauzon: 2 sig / 0 TD
Melvin Guillard
Joe Lauzon
32
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
80
37
Total strikes landed
38
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
29s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
33-18-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W1
Joe Lauzon
29-16
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—