Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Zhang Tiequan
Darren Elkins
33%
67%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
16-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
30-12
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tiequan: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Elkins: 27 sig / 1 TD
Zhang Tiequan
Darren Elkins
22
Sig strikes landed
30
76
Sig strikes attempted
85
28
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Zhang Tiequan
"The Wolf"
16-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
W1
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—