Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Aaron Simpson
Eric Schafer
60%
40%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
37
Age
Δ 3y
34
13-5
Career record
Δ 16 pp
14-9-2
W2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Simpson: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Schafer: 14 sig / 0 TD
Aaron Simpson
Eric Schafer
42
Sig strikes landed
32
82
Sig strikes attempted
79
66
Total strikes landed
56
2.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
6.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
253s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Aaron Simpson
"A-Train"
13-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Eric Schafer
"Red"
14-9-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—