Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joey Beltran
Stipe Miocic
25%
75%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
80"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
W1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Beltran: 52 sig / 1 TD ·
Miocic: 68 sig / 4 TD
Joey Beltran
Stipe Miocic
44
Sig strikes landed
65
108
Sig strikes attempted
128
70
Total strikes landed
76
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
179s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joey Beltran
"The Mexicutioner"
18-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
Stipe Miocic
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29