Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Jorge Santiago
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
28-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-13
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 24 sig / 4 TD ·
Santiago: 18 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Jorge Santiago
32
Sig strikes landed
23
71
Sig strikes attempted
63
56
Total strikes landed
43
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
232s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Demian Maia
28-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1
Jorge Santiago
"The Sandman"
25-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—