Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Steve Cantwell
Mike Massenzio
52%
48%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
7-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
13-10
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cantwell: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Massenzio: 78 sig / 1 TD
Steve Cantwell
Mike Massenzio
28
Sig strikes landed
35
60
Sig strikes attempted
68
45
Total strikes landed
65
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.8
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
260s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Steve Cantwell
"The Robot"
7-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
L2
Mike Massenzio
"The Master of Disaster"
13-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—