Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Jeremy Stephens
69%
31%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
25
Age
Δ 1y
25
24-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
30-23
L1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pettis: 21 sig / 6 TD ·
Stephens: 17 sig / 3 TD
Anthony Pettis
Jeremy Stephens
27
Sig strikes landed
37
79
Sig strikes attempted
85
40
Total strikes landed
59
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.90
95s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W2
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
30-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—