🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Jose Aldo vs Kenny Florian
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Kenny Florian
95%
5%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
25
Age
Δ 10y
35
33-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Aldo: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Florian: 40 sig / 1 TD
Jose Aldo
Kenny Florian
68
Sig strikes landed
71
143
Sig strikes attempted
168
105
Total strikes landed
79
3.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
6.3
0.80
Knockdowns
0.00
377s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W1
Kenny Florian
"KenFlo"
15-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—