Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Aaron Riley
64%
36%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 8"
69"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
27-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
31-14-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 1
Ferguson: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Riley: 11 sig / 0 TD
Tony Ferguson
Aaron Riley
30
Sig strikes landed
21
74
Sig strikes attempted
56
41
Total strikes landed
46
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
62s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Aaron Riley
31-14-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—