Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nate Diaz
Takanori Gomi
51%
49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
22-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
35-15
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Diaz: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Gomi: 4 sig / 0 TD
Nate Diaz
Takanori Gomi
47
Sig strikes landed
37
114
Sig strikes attempted
89
64
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
71s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
51%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nate Diaz
22-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Takanori Gomi
"The Fireball Kid"
35-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—