Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Hughes
Josh Koscheck
95%
5%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
38
Age
Δ 4y
34
45-10
Career record
Δ 23 pp
17-12
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hughes: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Koscheck: 26 sig / 0 TD
Matt Hughes
Josh Koscheck
28
Sig strikes landed
21
64
Sig strikes attempted
55
42
Total strikes landed
39
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.6
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
111s
Control time
197s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Hughes
45-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
38
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
L1
Josh Koscheck
17-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—