Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ben Rothwell
Mark Hunt
98%
2%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
30
Age
Δ 8y
38
40-14
Career record
Δ 26 pp
14-14-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rothwell: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Hunt: 47 sig / 2 TD
Ben Rothwell
Mark Hunt
38
Sig strikes landed
9
59
Sig strikes attempted
33
70
Total strikes landed
48
1.9
Takedowns landed
2.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
322s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ben Rothwell
40-14
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
W1
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
14-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—