🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Quinton Jackson
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
·Ball Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Quinton Jackson
86%
14%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 12"
73"
24
Age
Δ 9y
33
29-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
38-12
W4
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Jones: 61 sig / 2 TD ·
Jackson: 16 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Quinton Jackson
51
Sig strikes landed
15
84
Sig strikes attempted
55
63
Total strikes landed
21
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
259s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
56%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W2
Quinton Jackson
"Rampage"
38-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—