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Prelims1 Featherweight

Robert Peralta vs Mike Lullo

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger ·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Robert Peralta
Mike Lullo
76% 24%
Why
26
Age
Δ 7y
32
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Peralta: 80 sig / 1 TD · Lullo: 51 sig / 2 TD
Robert Peralta
Mike Lullo
41
Sig strikes landed
23
77
Sig strikes attempted
62
61
Total strikes landed
37
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
169s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Robert Peralta

"Problems"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
L1

Mike Lullo

8-4
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
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