Back to UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Prelims1 Welterweight

Justin Edwards vs Jorge Lopez

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger ·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Justin Edwards
Jorge Lopez
43% 57%
Why
29
Age
Δ 6y
23
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Edwards: 41 sig / 2 TD · Lopez: 42 sig / 3 TD
Justin Edwards
Jorge Lopez
37
Sig strikes landed
43
82
Sig strikes attempted
88
61
Total strikes landed
72
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
268s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Justin Edwards

"Fast Eddy"
9-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
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Blue corner

Jorge Lopez

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23