Back to UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Prelims1 Welterweight

TJ Waldburger vs Mike Stumpf

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger ·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
TJ Waldburger
Mike Stumpf
80% 20%
Why
23
Age
Δ 2y
25
L1
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Waldburger: 4 sig / 3 TD · Stumpf: 0 sig / 0 TD
TJ Waldburger
Mike Stumpf
27
Sig strikes landed
41
78
Sig strikes attempted
52
56
Total strikes landed
52
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
218s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

TJ Waldburger

16-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
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W UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
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Blue corner

Mike Stumpf

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
25