Back to UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Prelims1 Welterweight

Clay Harvison vs Seth Baczynski

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger ·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Clay Harvison
Seth Baczynski
67% 33%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
14-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
20-15
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Harvison: 12 sig / 0 TD · Baczynski: 41 sig / 0 TD
Clay Harvison
Seth Baczynski
41
Sig strikes landed
29
81
Sig strikes attempted
71
59
Total strikes landed
45
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
184s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Clay Harvison

"Bushwacker"
14-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
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Blue corner
L1

Seth Baczynski

"The Polish Pistola"
20-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—