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Prelims1 Welterweight

Matthew Riddle vs Lance Benoist

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger ·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Matthew Riddle
Lance Benoist
59% 41%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
26
Age
Δ 3y
23
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Riddle: 26 sig / 4 TD · Benoist: 39 sig / 1 TD
Matthew Riddle
Lance Benoist
43
Sig strikes landed
38
109
Sig strikes attempted
96
65
Total strikes landed
49
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
241s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Matthew Riddle

"Deep Waters"
8-4 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
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W UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
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W UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
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Blue corner

Lance Benoist

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23