Prelims1
Lightweight
Evan Dunham vs Shamar Bailey
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Evan Dunham
Shamar Bailey
61%
39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
18-10-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-11
L2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dunham: 92 sig / 0 TD ·
Bailey: 35 sig / 0 TD
Evan Dunham
Shamar Bailey
35
Sig strikes landed
35
138
Sig strikes attempted
76
55
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
182s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Evan Dunham
18-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Shamar Bailey
17-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—