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Prelims1 Lightweight

Cody McKenzie vs Vagner Rocha

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger ·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Cody McKenzie
Vagner Rocha
53% 47%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
24
Age
Δ 6y
29
16-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
14-5
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
McKenzie: 15 sig / 0 TD · Rocha: 18 sig / 2 TD
Cody McKenzie
Vagner Rocha
33
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
45
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
145s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
32%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Cody McKenzie

16-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
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W The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
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Blue corner
L1

Vagner Rocha

"Ceara"
14-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
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