Back to UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Main Middleweight

Alan Belcher vs Jason MacDonald

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger ·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alan Belcher
Jason MacDonald
76% 24%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
80"
27
Age
Δ 9y
36
19-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
26-16
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Belcher: 25 sig / 0 TD · MacDonald: 2 sig / 0 TD
Alan Belcher
Jason MacDonald
23
Sig strikes landed
21
41
Sig strikes attempted
48
40
Total strikes landed
32
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
144s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
39%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alan Belcher

"The Talent"
19-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W1

Jason MacDonald

"The Athlete"
26-16
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—