Back to UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Main Featherweight

Jonathan Brookins vs Erik Koch

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger ·Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Jonathan Brookins
Erik Koch
54% 46%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 3y
23
17-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
17-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brookins: 23 sig / 1 TD · Koch: 40 sig / 0 TD
Jonathan Brookins
Erik Koch
28
Sig strikes landed
23
60
Sig strikes attempted
68
44
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
211s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jonathan Brookins

17-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
W1

Erik Koch

"Phoenix"
17-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—