Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Bronzoulis
Chad Leonhardt
83%
17%
Why
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Mike Bronzoulis
Chad Leonhardt
43
Sig strikes landed
50
110
Sig strikes attempted
111
57
Total strikes landed
66
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Bronzoulis
"The Greek"
18-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
Blue corner
Chad Leonhardt
"The Boss"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
32