Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sterling Ford
Milton Vieira
89%
11%
Why
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sterling Ford
Milton Vieira
44
Sig strikes landed
38
109
Sig strikes attempted
102
58
Total strikes landed
41
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
123s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sterling Ford
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 17
—
Blue corner
Milton Vieira
"Miltinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33