Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roy Jones
Derrick Mehmen
75%
25%
Why
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Roy Jones
Derrick Mehmen
40
Sig strikes landed
44
95
Sig strikes attempted
111
56
Total strikes landed
60
2.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Roy Jones
0-0
Career record
Age
28
Blue corner
Derrick Mehmen
"Caveman"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Age
26