Back to Strikeforce Challengers 18
Women's Featherweight

Sarah D'alelio vs Ronda Rousey

Strikeforce Challengers 18 ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Sarah D'alelio
Ronda Rousey
57% 43%
Why
31
Age
Δ 6y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
D'alelio: 1 sig / 0 TD · Rousey: 0 sig / 0 TD
Sarah D'alelio
Ronda Rousey
41
Sig strikes landed
52
97
Sig strikes attempted
102
67
Total strikes landed
84
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
173s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Sarah D'alelio

"The Monster"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Age
31
Blue corner

Ronda Rousey

"Rowdy"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25