Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Danillo Villefort
Nate James
88%
12%
Why
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Danillo Villefort
Nate James
49
Sig strikes landed
40
109
Sig strikes attempted
102
63
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
132s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Danillo Villefort
"Indio"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Nate James
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
33