Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jorge Gurgel
Joe Duarte
61%
39%
Why
34
Age
34
15-10
Career record
Δ 13 pp
11-4
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jorge Gurgel
Joe Duarte
30
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
101
35
Total strikes landed
57
1.9
Takedowns landed
2.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
105s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
55%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jorge Gurgel
15-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Hender…
—
L
Strikeforce - Houston
—
Blue corner
W1
Joe Duarte
11-4
Career record
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—