Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ed Herman
Kyle Noke
54%
46%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
28-16
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-10-1
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Herman: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Noke: 12 sig / 1 TD
Ed Herman
Kyle Noke
22
Sig strikes landed
20
54
Sig strikes attempted
44
27
Total strikes landed
27
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
38s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
28-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W3
Kyle Noke
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—