Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Eddie Wineland
85%
15%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
29-8
Career record
Δ 21 pp
24-17-1
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benavidez: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Wineland: 24 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Eddie Wineland
34
Sig strikes landed
29
110
Sig strikes attempted
75
59
Total strikes landed
39
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
252s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joseph Benavidez
29-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Eddie Wineland
24-17-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—