Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacob Volkmann
Danny Castillo
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
20-7
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-10
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Volkmann: 6 sig / 3 TD ·
Castillo: 22 sig / 1 TD
Jacob Volkmann
Danny Castillo
26
Sig strikes landed
29
66
Sig strikes attempted
64
50
Total strikes landed
55
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.5
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
209s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jacob Volkmann
"Christmas"
20-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—