Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Edwin Figueroa
Jason Reinhardt
55%
45%
Why
27
Age
Δ 15y
42
9-6
Career record
Δ 23 pp
20-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Figueroa: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Reinhardt: 1 sig / 1 TD
Edwin Figueroa
Jason Reinhardt
41
Sig strikes landed
40
76
Sig strikes attempted
103
58
Total strikes landed
76
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
163s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Edwin Figueroa
"El Feroz"
9-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jason Reinhardt
20-4
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—