Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Cole Miller
TJ O'Brien
49%
51%
Why
27
Age
Δ 3y
25
21-12
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-9
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Miller: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
O'Brien: 28 sig / 0 TD
Cole Miller
TJ O'Brien
30
Sig strikes landed
25
68
Sig strikes attempted
56
50
Total strikes landed
32
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cole Miller
"Magrinho"
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
TJ O'Brien
"The Spider"
20-9
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—