Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Charles Oliveira
34%
66%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
28
Age
Δ 7y
22
37-17
Career record
Δ 9 pp
37-11
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cerrone: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 10 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Charles Oliveira
27
Sig strikes landed
29
57
Sig strikes attempted
72
45
Total strikes landed
40
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
86s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
50%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—