Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jimy Hettes
Alex Caceres
64%
36%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
24
Age
Δ 1y
23
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Hettes: 2 sig / 5 TD ·
Caceres: 13 sig / 0 TD
Jimy Hettes
Alex Caceres
37
Sig strikes landed
35
86
Sig strikes attempted
80
51
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.60
107s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jimy Hettes
"The Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
Blue corner
L1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
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