Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Drew Fickett
65%
35%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
33
Age
Δ 2y
32
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kawajiri: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Fickett: 1 sig / 0 TD
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Drew Fickett
20
Sig strikes landed
28
61
Sig strikes attempted
65
29
Total strikes landed
43
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
37-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
Dynamite!! 2010
—
L
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
Drew Fickett
"The Master"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32