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Light Heavyweight

Gegard Mousasi vs Hiroshi Izumi

DREAM - Japan GP Final ·Ariake Coliseum
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Hiroshi Izumi
96% 4%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
43-6-2
Career record
Δ 13 pp
5-2
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mousasi: 29 sig / 0 TD · Izumi: 1 sig / 0 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Hiroshi Izumi
24
Sig strikes landed
11
59
Sig strikes attempted
77
32
Total strikes landed
4
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
161s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
65%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Gegard Mousasi

43-6-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W DREAM 16
—
W DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
W1

Hiroshi Izumi

5-2
Career record
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W Dynamite!! 2010
—