Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ben Lagman
Anthony Smith
45%
55%
Why
25
Age
Δ 2y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ben Lagman
Anthony Smith
40
Sig strikes landed
47
101
Sig strikes attempted
114
52
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
98s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ben Lagman
"Bad News"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Age
25
Blue corner
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23