Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lionel Lanham
TJ Cook
69%
31%
Why
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lionel Lanham
TJ Cook
42
Sig strikes landed
47
100
Sig strikes attempted
103
54
Total strikes landed
68
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lionel Lanham
0-0
Career record
Age
31
Blue corner
TJ Cook
0-0
Career record
Age
29