Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adlan Amagov
Ron Stallings
76%
24%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
25
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Adlan Amagov
Ron Stallings
37
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
69
53
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Adlan Amagov
"Borz"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Ron Stallings
"The Choir Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29